Tyler Myers

In this interview from four years ago, Greg Jackson comments on preparing Jon Jones for his fights:

       He has a unique creativity. To me, he’s more of a unique person...and he’s actually a real challenge for me as a coach, because I want to make sure that he’s got his basics really strong, but I have to keep the creativity...Those two things, making them concurrent...it’s such a challenge.

       I tend to come back to this around the run-up to the draft, as Mckenzie rankings and mock results are churned up over and over until the actual event takes place. Beyond that, it’s an interesting observation that has applications for anyone trying to understand the development of a set of skills in any field. From my own coaching, it’s something that becomes more and more apparent the less time you have to develop the skills that make playing your game possible. You have an ideal set of plans you’d like to enact, patterns of play you want to enforce, habits you want to build based on the makeup of your team, that you believe puts them in the best position to win. This is very difficult to achieve in the best circumstances, and sometimes feels impossible in the context of beer league hockey, based on individual availability, the price and scarcity of ice time, and the limited human tolerance for multiple evenings of hockey a week starting at 11pm, “for fun.” You wish for more opportunities to play in the beginning. By the end, your body hates you and is ready for the offseason.

Recent trade speculation brings me back to Jackson’s comments while thinking about the way Tyler Myers is perceived. Tyler Myers is a lot of things to a lot of people. I think he’s a very good hockey player, with some qualifications. I believe part of the disappointment over his inability to sustain the production of his Calder-winning 2009-10 season stems from reading the point totals behind it out of context. I also believe that some of the criticism is justified. It’s not controversial to say that Tyler Myers isn’t going to become the omnipotent Chara/Weber-esque alpha blueliner a lot of Buffalo fans would like him to be. He’s not Erik Karlsson or Drew Doughty, either, to point to two particularly skilled examples from within the 2008 draft class*(footnote). I think of Myers’ game as combining the styles of the players mentioned above, both in the way he plays and his impact on the ice. 

Myers’ most obvious attribute is his height, and this is problematic for a number of reasons. If you pay attention to the language of scouts and pundits, “size,” meaning something like “volume” with an emphasis on the vertical, is still prized in itself. Hockey distinctly lacks the vertical elements of basketball, and the diversity of successful body types at the professional level illustrates that. Despite this, smaller players often find their skills scrutinized in the absence of size to make it more superficially appealing. Some players’ size noticeably impacts the way they play (aforementioned Chara, Lucic, goalies), but all but the best could surely do better with more refined skills or intelligence, regardless of size.

Myers’ height at 6’8’’ leaves few obvious comparisons. He's among the tallest ever to play in the NHL. The only comparable defensemen of skill in that range are Zdeno Chara and Chris Pronger, both of whom are sure to be inducted into the hall of fame and play a very different style than Myers. Both are noted for their combination of physical dominance and offensive play, brutality and leadership. Chara, on the surface, is the paradigmatic case for the importance of size in the sport, and he’s playing right now. Everyone can see what Chara does for the Bruins on a nightly basis, and every team that reaches in the draft for a raw, freakishly tall defenseman envisions their own edition launching incoming forecheckers into the air, ending fights with eye contact, and blasting outrageous point shots through helpless goalies. 

Myers’ best attribute is his skating. No one his size moves up the ice like Tyler Myers. His long, fluid strides cover a lot of distance with minimal effort. He lacks the agility of a smaller player, but his efficiency and the power of his strides make up for the lack of explosiveness. His shot is fine, but he won’t throw anyone into the glass with regularity, nor silence would-be combatants with his presence alone. He’s at his best carrying the puck out of the defensive end, leading the rush up the ice.

Part of the problem, from a fan's perspective, has been a succession of coaching attempts to groom him in the style of a Zdeno Chara, eating minutes with physicality and own zone play instead of focusing on his ability to skate up the ice. Under the Ruff regime, every offseason would bring soft articles about Myers’ efforts to bulk up, to weaponize his frame for the upcoming season. Part of this is a function of his youth at the time. Every young NHL player needs to grow into a body that’s prepared to handle 82 games, season after season, against some of the strongest and toughest athletes in the world. But the emphasis always struck me as a nod to Chara-fication, the notion that, if only he were bigger and stronger, he could put up 50 points, dominate in the defensive end, and play 30 minutes a night.

(Upcoming stats from Behind the Net and Hockey Reference, salary info from capgeek, injury info from TSN)

Knowing slightly more now, these kinds of expectations are ridiculous for all but the best players. Myers’ 48 points (11 goals, 37 assists) in his 2009-10 rookie season came with a PDO of 101.6. Part of this can be accounted for with Ryan Miller’s Vezina-winning season, but is nonetheless ripe for regression. He had 11 fewer points in 2010-11, but accompanied it with an 11.1 Corsi Relative, marking his best overall season to this point in terms of possession numbers and offensive production. From 2011 on, Myers has had to recover from a broken wrist (19 games missed), a broken leg    (7 games missed), an elbow injury (5 games), and a rib injury at the end of last season (10 games), along with an assortment of less severe injuries and a three game suspension for a hit to the head. His possession performance was by far its worst in 2011-12 (-7.1 Corsi Rel), having recovered gradually year by year since then. 

Myers maintains a 2.4 Corsi Rel through the first 11 games of the season. On sight, he’s able to carry the puck up the ice effectively. Unfortunately, his offensive production this season, should Buffalo’s miserable play continue (it will), is likely to be minimal. Myers’ is averaging just under 2 shots per game this season, and will easily break his best single season shot total if this continues. He’ll find the back of the net at some point if he maintains this production, but as long as the Sabres continue to average just 20.9 shots per game, his assist totals will suffer from the overall lack of team production.

Which brings me to my next point: This team sucks. Surprise! Not controversial. The Sabres are on pace to become another historically bad team, likely challenging the canonical Oakland Seals and early Washington Capitals teams for post-expansion futility. Again. There’s not much more for me to say about this beyond hoping it’s over soon (it won’t be). Regarding Myers, this is by far the worst team he’s ever played on in his professional career. He had noticeably more success under Ted Nolan than Ron Rolston in the previous season, and he seems to be playing to his strengths despite the team’s struggles. His Corsi Rel of 2.4 places him in the better half of the team so far. Given how the absolute numbers look (Corsi On -31.53 - Corsi Off -33.93, for Myers), there’s not much to be proud of, but at the very least, relative to his teammates, Myers is having some level of success where it can be had.

Myers’ contract sees him through the 2018-19 season at a $5.5 million hit. With the cap at $69 million and rising, his deal would be easy to make space for on Detroit’s and Dallas’ rosters, especially closer to the deadline. Detroit’s been named the primary suitor by media speculation in the bidding for his services. Given the value of his contract, the number of years it covers, and quality as a player relative to the market, the Sabres would be foolish to relinquish Myers‘ hastily. Ideally, they’d be able to acquire a good, young forward at the center of the deal, as that’s where they need to augment their depth the most. There’s nothing to suggest they might receive the caliber of player they’re asking for (assuming the reports are accurate), so it makes the most sense to hold on to him. At his age and with his contract, Myers would be just as easy to move at the draft or in the offseason.

        Trade speculation about good players on horrible teams is natural in hockey. The story writes itself, and needs little confirmation beyond an unnamed source. Aesthetically, there's something abhorrent about the contrast. Usually it takes impending free-agency to bring out the heavy rumours, but the Sabres' awfulness for the foreseeable future has illustrates the notion that any piece can be stripped during an obvious tank. The perception of failing to live up to a single successful season for Myers implies, with his age, the prospect of returning to success as a reclamation project. He's clearly a capable NHL player, so the gamble for a team attempting to land him in a trade focuses on whether he is, on a team where he's not by far the best defenseman, a second pairing player or one who can be groomed into a top role. Again, his height and his frame play a part in this, but less so than for a completely unknown quantity. It's his skating ability and the perception of its misuse or inability to be leveraged for the Sabres that drives his value on the trade market.

Returning to Chara, I find the comparison most reassuring considering development. Both players were drafted as projects, needing time and work to turn into the kind of players their teams envisioned them to be. Chara’s development into one of the best all around defensemen of his generation received a considerable boost with his trade to Ottawa from the New York Islanders in an infamous Mike Milbury deal at the 2001 draft. In his four seasons in Ottawa, from the ages 24-28, he finished in the top 10 recipients of Norris Trophy votes three times, including a second place finish in 2003-04 to Scott Niedermayer. His eight seasons in Boston leading up to this one have seen him win a Norris trophy, captain his team to a Stanley Cup and a second finals appearance, and exceed the promise of his uncommon physical form in just about every way. Mirroring Jackson’s assessment of Jones, Mike Milbury said this of his former draft pick in a Nancy Marrapese-Burrell piece during the 2011 Stanley Cup finals: 

Milbury said nobody projected Chara to be the player he is today. 
"Most of that is a credit to how badly he wanted to get the job done, to be an elite-level player," said Milbury. "Early on, it looked like he was going to be a [No. 4] defenseman but not a potent offensive guy. But he's worked at all facets of the game and he's one of the great shutdown players in the game. I just think it's purely from focus and hard work that he's made it. I'm sure he's had some coaches along the way but there wasn't much that was going to get in Z's way. It was a hard and long path to get to where he's at."

Myers will turn 25 in February. The hope for Sabres fans is that it won’t take a trade to get elite-level play out of him. For Myers, it’s likely that Chara’s example can be followed, in preparation, diligence, longevity, and the results of that work. For Tim Murray, it’s that any of his assets at this point can be used to create more to build toward a championship. If Myers can be swung for a fitting return, he’s going to pull the trigger. It most likely will not involve the first or second overall pick like Milbury’s decision to ship Chara in 2001. Over the course of this season, Myers’ play and health will go a long way towards determining these outcomes.